Guardiola Mind Games? Liverpool “First Favorites” for Premier League
Manchester City failed to beat Arsenal in the late kickoff
Pep Guardiola had a lot to say about the title race in his post-match press conference on Sunday, which happened after title rivals Manchester City and Arsenal played out a painfully boring draw that left Liverpool in the driver’s seat for the Premier League title.
Asked if Liverpool were left in “prime position” after the day’s results, Guardiola answered in the affirmative:
“Yes. Always [Liverpool] is first is favorites, second is Arsenal and we are third.
“It’s not in our hands. All we can do is think of Aston Villa [on Wednesday]. If you are top of the league — like we’ve been before — you are favorites.
“We prefer to win, obviously. We take the point. A tight game. I recognized my team, I’m so proud. They tried. Our intention was there. We’ll see what happens. We need to refresh our minds and legs before Aston Villa.”
In terms of odds, Guardiola isn’t quite right: Liverpool are slight favorites, with a 47% chance per Opta Analyst odds, which accounts for things like difficulty of schedule. City are second favorites according to this model, with 34%, and Arsenal sit at 19% — despite Arsenal’s better place on the table.
The important thing here is that no team has odds over 50%; Liverpool are favorites, but Liverpool is more likely to lose the league than win it at this current juncture.
Guardiola’s statement is likely intended to paint his side as the underdogs, alleviating pressure that Liverpool will certainly be feeling.
Regardless of odds, though, it’s certainly Liverpool’s title to lose: the Reds are the only side in the driver’s seat, as Arsenal and City both need Liverpool to drop points before their own results can have a say.
Source: liverpooloffside.sbnation.com
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