When Will Liverpool Win The Premier League?
Liverpool have a 13-point lead with 10 matches to go, and it’s reasonable to ask when, not if, they will lift number 20.
After Arsenal lost to West Ham last weekend, Mikel Arteta proclaimed that he would concede the title race “over my dead body.” It was all a bit silly and overly dramatic then, and made even more so after Liverpool won their next two and Arsenal once again dropped points midweek.
Various oddsmakers currently put Liverpool’s title odds percentage in the high 90’s. Opta currently put the likelihood at 98.87%. Yes, Arsenal are not mathematically eliminated, but the same can be said for the other 11 sides, from 12th placed Crystal Palace on up, that Liverpool have not technically mathematically eliminated from title contention yet.
As things stand, asking when Liverpool clinch the title is reasonable, and clutching pearls over “jinxing” such a thought is not. To further put this into perspective: if Liverpool win their remaining home matches and lose all their remaining aways, Arsenal will still not catch Liverpool, even if they win out, which they are unlikely to do.
Matches Remaining & Permutations:
Matchday 31: Everton vs. Arsenal (April 5th) & Fulham vs. Liverpool (April 6th)
This is the earliest the Reds can eliminate Arsenal, though if this comes to fruition they very well may have been leapfrogged by any one of Forest, City, or Chelsea.
Regardless, this is a highly unlikely scenario. Liverpool would have to win their next three (at home to Southampton, Everton, and away to Fulham), and Arsenal would have to lose their next four (away to Manchester United, home to Chelsea and Fulham, and away to Everton).
In this case, Liverpool would be on 76 points, Arsenal still on 54, and the gap would be 22 points with 7 matches to play.
Matchday 32: Arsenal vs. Brentford (April 12th) & Liverpool vs West Ham (April 13th)
Liverpool would need to extend their lead to 19 points by the end of this match week to clinch the title. That means that if Liverpool win their next four, and Arsenal win two and lose three OR win one, draw three, and lose one, Liverpool would be champions.
This is unlikely, but not completely outside the realm of possibilities.
Matchday 33: Ipswich Town vs. Arsenal & Leicester City vs. Liverpool (April 20th)
Both Liverpool and Arsenal would be away to newly promoted sides, and given the strength of the newly promoted sides, this feels like both sides are fairly likely to win here.
However, the number of matchdays remaining would start to really apply pressure on Arsenal here. If Liverpool had extended their lead from 13 to 16 points in the previous 5 matchdays, Liverpool could win the title this weekend even if both sides win.
Matchday 34: Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace (April 26th) & Liverpool vs. Tottenham (Hotspur) (April 27th)
If Liverpool maintain their 13-point cushion over second place (presumably Arsenal), they will clinch the title with four matches remaining. This would require Arsenal to lose their game in hand and match Liverpool’s other results or drop points in at least two more matches than Liverpool.
Matchday 35: Arsenal vs. Bournemouth & Chelsea vs. Liverpool (May 3rd)
If Arsenal win their game in and match Liverpool’s results, Liverpool’s lead will be 10 points, and they will be crowned champions after this week’s results. And as a bonus: Arsenal would have to give Liverpool a guard of honor the following match.
As we can see, even with 3 matches to go, the math(s) start to really favor Liverpool.
Matchday 36: Liverpool vs. Arsenal (May 10th)
Liverpool win the league if their lead is 7 points or more over Arsenal when the full time whistle goes. For Arsenal to ensure that this game even matters, they will have had to have won their game in hand and have gained at least a point on Liverpool.
If the gap coming into the game is at least 7 points, meaning Arsenal would’ve won their game in hand and gained 3 points on Liverpool, Arsenal would have to win at Anfield to keep themselves mathematically alive in the title challenge.
Matchday 37: Arsenal vs. Newcastle & Brighton vs. Liverpool (May18th)
Well, we’ve come this far, might as well go to the bitter end. Arsenal will need to cut Liverpool’s lead down to 3 points by the end of the match week to keep themselves mathematically alive going into the final game.
Matchday 38: Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace & Southampton vs. Arsenal (May 25th)
Let’s hope it doesn’t come down to this. Southampton, even at home, are a banker for Arsenal. Crystal Palace, equally, would be a challenge for Liverpool, even at home, and especially nervy with a league title on the line.
So, let’s win it before the final week, yeah?
Conclusion:
It’s not simply that Liverpool have a sizeable lead that makes them overwhelming favorites to lift #20 before the end of the season (and very likely with a few matches to go), but the fact that Liverpool have been far and away the most consistent side across the top flight. Arsenal still have not won more than 3 matches in a row, a trend that they continued last week: after a 3-match winning streak, they came crashing back down with a loss at home to West Ham and a scoreless draw away to Forest.
Liverpool are currently running at a 2.39 points-per-game pace, which would be good enough for a 90 or 91 point season over 38 games. And they have mostly been running at a 90-point pace all season. Meanwhile Arsenal are running at a 2 points-per-game average, or 76 points over the course of the season.
Liverpool have far and away the best underlying numbers for attack (2.21 xG per match according to Opta), compared to the eighth-best attack in Arsenal (1.61 xG), and the second best in defense (0.89 xGA per match) with Arsenal doing marginally better (0.85 xGA). This of course means Liverpool are streets ahead of Arsenal in xGD per match (1.32 to 0.75) and xPTS (61.13 to 50.47).
If Arsenal win out, which they are unlikely to do, they would earn 87 points, which is still 3 or 4 points shy of where The Reds are likely to end up. If, instead of becoming absolute world beaters, Arsenal continue going at their current pace, they will end up in the mid to high 70’s.
Of course it’s not over until it’s over, but the more likely scenario is that Liverpool’s point gap will grow larger, not get smaller. And even if Arsenal win their match in hand and make a big step up to Liverpool’s pace, things will still be over by the time the final whistle goes in the Chelsea vs. Liverpool match, with 3 matches to play.
From this point, the only thing Liverpool can do is just to continue putting points on the board until all is officially said and done.
Source: liverpooloffside.sbnation.com
Post a Comment